at the end of 2018, I was lay off from GM after only a couple months. in the middle of 2018, I was planning to jump out from the traditional CAE group, to try the new autonomous vehicle. but a few things I missed when made that decision:
the big environment
how long will the traditional automotive industry stay in a sort of good shape? the answer now is not long. from Oct 2018, both Ford and GM publicly lay off over 15%, the vehicle market at both China and NA were significantly down from Q3; even earlier the manufactoring robotic supplieres mentioned their 2019 order were almost zero. so layoff employees is almost destined.
in economics, consumer index is the reason, employment/unemployment rate is the result, not the reverse. and there is a delay from consumer index to unemployment, about 3 ~ 6 month. so when the market is done, a few month later, the unempolyment rate will show up.
an even biggger environment, the trade war among China and USA raise the cost, fear both the consumers and the investors. not only vehicle market, consumer electronics (e.g. apple), internet(e.g. Google), retail industry(e.g. Alibaba) and as closely related to lologistics, chips, energy, housing, finance all go down.
the winter is coming. Sooo scary, hate Trump !
new techs in vehicle
for a new stuff in market, the trend is starting extremely high, then low to bottom, then go to rationality. it happens to AI, autonomous vehicle(AV) market. starting from 2016, billions invest in, every step looks promising, revolution. but 2 years now, even Waymo said it can’t make AV in bussiness.
on one way, OEMs can’t be lay behind, so buy startups, on the other way, they can’t all invest in AV, which has no mature market strategy. the more invest, the higher risk.
for people who want to eat this AV cake, cold cold.
how to face the changing world
have to say, there is no well-prepared in this quick-changing world, plan is always out of date.
at the middle of year, I thought I made the right decision to leave Ford CAE group, join GM autonmous group, now put myself in a poor situation.
I usually have a mind, that this thing has to, must to be done in this and only this way; this situation is and has to be dealed in this and only this way; this person is and has to be treated in this and only this way. I know this is the poor mindset.
they say “poor people make poor decisions”, thanks to warn me up. e.g.
* so high risk to depend on one single incoming resource
* no stable business, keep humble and keep foolish
* be positive, be felxible.